5.9 - Population Characteristics of Sub-Saharan Africa

Fast Facts on Population:

In a little over 50 years, Sub-Saharan Africa's population grew from 200 million in 1960 to 1.3  billion in 2020. By 2050, the population could reach  2 to 2.4 billion. Africa as a whole is much less densely populated than most of Europa and Asia, but places that are relatively uncrowded now may change dramatically over the next few decades. In some rural areas, population density may far exceed the carrying capacity of the land, which could lead to widespread migration to cities.

Five countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have seen the sharp decline in births and deaths associated with stage 3 of the "demographic transition" - South Africa, Botswana, the Seychelles, Reunion, and Mauritius. Per capita incomes are 3 to 10 higher in these countries than in the region as a whole. Advances in health care have cut infant mortality to around 35 in these countries. Female literacy rates are 80 to 90% as compared to 54% for the region. 56% of women in these countries have access to and use birth control as compared to 28% for the region.

Compare the population pyramids for the fastest growing and slowest growing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa - Nigeria and South Africa.

Nigeria has 196 million people and a natural growth rate of 2.6% per year. Nigeria's pyramid is very wide at the base because it has a high birth rate of 39 births per thousand people. Over half its population is under the age of 19, and in just 15 years, this entire group will be of reproductive age, which could result in a population explosion since only 16% of Nigerian women use any sort of birth control.  In 40 years Nigeria's population is projected to almost half a billion and still growing rapidly. In South Africa, there are 55 million people and a natural growth rate of 1.6 percent. Compared to Nigeria, South Africa's pyramid has shrunk at the bottom because its birth rate has dropped from 35 per 1000 to 21 per 1000 over the last 20 years. This decrease is partly due to high contraceptive use ( 54% of South African women) and partly due to high rates of HIV/AIDS infection among young adults. In 40 years, South Africa's population is projected to be 67 million and not growing at all.

Cities

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Sub-Saharan Africa's population density is higher than the US but lower than in Europe. In sub-Saharan Africa, the urban population has doubled since the mid-1990s, and reached 400 million people in 2016. According to experts, 40 percent of the region's total population resides in cities, compared to 31 percent in 2000. During the next 15 years, the United Nations predicts the world's 10 fastest-growing cities will be in Africa. Most experts think that Africa will be the fastest urbanizing region in the world over the next 30 years. However, the development of infrastructure and industries has not kept pace with the growth in urban population. Sixty percent of city dwellers in Sub-Saharan Africa live in slums, and only 25 percent have access to safe drinking water. Poor sewage systems and weak flood control present another challenge. Human waste management is a growing problem - waste is buried as there insufficient plants to handle it.

Most of Africa's urban growth is in small and mid-sized cities, with slightly more than half of African urban dwellers living in cities with populations of less than 250,000. But it has some very large and growing cities. Lagos, Nigeria is the largest city in Africa and the 18th largest in the world. It has a population of  9 million. It is projected to become the largest city in the world, with an estimated population of 88.3 million people by the year 2100. Kinshasa, Republic of Congo (7.8 million); Abidjan, Ivory Coast (3.7 million); Kano, Nigeria (3.6 million); Ibadan, Nigeria (3.6 million) and Cape Town, South Africa (3.4 Million) are the next largest cities in the region.