Short Answer: Climate Drivers

Climate Drivers 

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In this assignment you are going to explore the different climate drivers, both natural and man-caused. Climate scientists use the term ''Driver'' to indicate something that drives (or influences) climate phenomenon.   (insert your own joke about climate, driving, CO2 emissions). 

We are going to use an interactive graph from the 2018 National Climate Assessment to learn about the different potential drivers and the relative impact of each on the climate trends.  For each of the potential causes (drivers) of climate change the scientists have 

• Made a hypothesis: Climate Driver X is the cause of our current climate change (Hypothesis) 
• Calculated in what way that driver would influence the temperature change over the last 150 years (Prediction) 
• Graphed the actual temperature changed  over the last 150 years. (Observation)
• This was done for natural climate drivers - volcanoes, solar changes, orbital changes
• As well as for human drivers - greenhouse gases, ozone, land cover, aerosols. 
• You will then compare the Prediction  to the  Observation  and decide if that Hypothesis  is correct. 

Directions 

• Go to Chapter 2 of the 2018 National Climate Assessment Report Links to an external site. 
• Scroll down until you get to Figure 2.1, Natural Influences on Global Temperature. ( see image to the right)

  

• Notice that you can click on the Drivers individually or combined to toggle them on or off.  
• Click one at a time on the 3 Natural Drivers (volcanic, solar, orbital).  
  • Observe the graphs and answer the questions below. 
• Then click one at a time on the  4  Human Drivers (greenhouse gases, ozone, land cover and aerosols)
  • Observe the graphs and answer the questions below.

Text description of Figure 2.1, Human and Natural Influences on Global Temperature, Accessible version (Word doc) Download Text description of Figure 2.1, Human and Natural Influences on Global Temperature, Accessible version (Word doc)

Assignment Testing Hypotheses

For each hypothesis below  , run the simulation and state the following ( you don't  need to do Land Cover Changes, since I use it as an example below. 

• • State the hypothesis:
    • Example:  Land cover changes are causing the temperature changes over the last 150 years
  • State the prediction :  
    • Ex: If land use changes are causing the current warming , then the calculation of land use changes on temperature should match the current amount of warming in the graphs
  • Compare the predicted and observed:  state in 1-2 sentences how the two graphs compare
    • Ex: The land cover changes would have caused global temperature changes that rise and fall. What we observe in real life  is that the temperature has been steadily rising since the 1960's
  • Conclusion: state whether you accept or reject the hypothesis
    • Ex: The land cover changes alone are not causing the temperature changes we see over the last 150 years. 

Natural Climate Driver Hypotheses 

• • • Volcanic eruptions are causing the temperature changes over the last 150 years
    • Solar flares are causing the temperature changes over the last 150 years
    • Orbital changes are causing the temperature changes over the last 150 years

Human Caused Climate Driver Hypotheses 

• • • Aerosol pollution is causing the temperature changes over the last 150 years
    • Land cover changes are causing the temperature changes over the last 150 years
    • Ozone concentrations are causing the temperature changes over the last 150 years
    • Greenhouse gases are causing the temperature changes over the last 150 years
    • All 4 of these human drivers are causing the temperature changes over the last 150 years

Assignment: Summary

Some times, people will say'' But the climate has warmed before, how do we know it is humans? Maybe the climate is being changed by natural causes''  Using the information from your hypothesis testing above, write a one paragraph answer explaining why greenhouse gases are  the main cause of climate change.