On February 24, 2022, Vladimir Putin launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine sparking the biggest war on a European state since World War II. The war began with a Russian military buildup in another of Ukraine's neighbors: Belarus. Belarus has retained very close economic and political ties with Russia since its independence in 1991. Belarus borders three NATO member states that were once communist states: Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. Strategically, Belarus is important to the Russian military effort. It shares nearly 700 miles of border with Ukraine, and Kyiv is closer to Belarus than it is to Russia. Over the winter, more than 30,000 Russian troops gathered in Belarus under the guise of joint training exercises. Russia had claimed those forces would return home after the exercises ended in late February. Instead, they invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Since then, Russian forces coming from Belarus have approached the capital Kyiv along the west side of the Dnieper River and attacked Chernihiv, a smaller city to Kyiv's northeast. Some injured Russian soldiers have been evacuated to hospitals in Belarus, according to The Wall Street Journal. Russian missiles have also been launched from Belarus, the Pentagon has reported.

In addition, offensives were launched from Russia and the two occupied territories of Ukraine (Crimea and Donbas). The four major offensives are the Kyiv offensive, the Northeastern Ukraine offensive, the Eastern Ukraine offensive, and the Southern Ukraine offensive. Russian aircraft and missiles also struck western parts of Ukraine. Russian forces have approached or besieged key settlements, including Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mariupol, and Sumy but have met stiff Ukrainian resistance and experienced logistical and operational challenges that have hampered their progress.

Three weeks after launching the invasion, the Russian military had more success in the south, while incremental gains or stalemates resulting in mounting civilian casualties occurred around Kviv. In late March 2022, Russian forces withdrew from the Kyiv region with the declared aim to refocus on Donbas, leaving behind devastated settlements and growing evidence of atrocities against civilians.

Map of Mariapol In April, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia has launched an all-out assault to seize the eastern Donbas region.The offensive had been expected after Russia failed to seize Kyiv. After its push to overrun the capital stalled, Moscow announced its military would focus instead on eastern Ukraine where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting Ukrainian forces since 2014. Luhansk is one of the most fiercely contested regions, and in April its Governor Serhiy Hayday said it had come under attack from all sides. He announced that street fighting in the city of Kreminna had forced Ukrainian troops to withdraw and regroup, leaving Russian forces in control of the eastern city of 18,000. "They moved in but our defenders had to retreat," Mr Hayday said. "The enemy was shelling every metre of our defense line." The strategic port city of Mariupol, meanwhile, has come under intense bombardment. Pro-Russian forces have stormed the city's Azovstal steelworks, where Mariupol's final defenders have been holding out for days. Most civilians have fled the city as it has been largely destroyed. Estimates are that a couple of thousand Ukrainian soldiers and a couple of hundred civilians continue to defend the steelworks from tunnels and bunkers beneath it. The Ukrainian President is working to secure safe evacuation for the military and civilians from Mariupol. Mariupol is a key Russian target which if captured would allow its troops to complete a land-bridge between the occupied Crimean peninsula and separatist held regions of eastern Ukraine.

Senior Biden administration officials believe that the next four weeks will shape the eventual outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine, with long-lasting ramifications that will influence the drawing of the map of Europe for decades to come. While the officials still expect the war to be long and grinding, they say that it is imperative to rush Ukraine as many new weapons as possible — especially long-range artillery and anti-artillery radar — to push back Russia’s new advance in the eastern Donbas region.

Statistics on War through April 2022

The United Nations says 5 million people have fled Ukraine, most into neighboring countries, marking the “fastest growing refugee crisis since World War II. Another 2.7 million Ukrainians have been internally displaced within Ukraine
190,000 Russian troops are estimated to have invaded Ukraine.
According to the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), Ukraine had 196,600 active military personnel when the invasion began on 24 February.
About 5,000 civilians have died to date in Ukraine, however, this is probably a vast understatement. There is evidence that mass graves containing 1000's of civilians in Mariupol exist.
At least 3,000 civilians have been injured. Again, this is likely to be a vast understatement of casualities.
$2.5 billion in military aid including, more than 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems. About 5,500 Javelin missiles. More than 7,000 small arms. And 50 million rounds of ammunition have been supplied to Ukraine
23 Russian commanders and generals have been killed in combat
Total military casualties are difficult to ascertain but NATO believe about 15,000 Russian soldiers have died. Estimates on Ukrainian casualities are difficult to find. Russia estimates 23,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed
Severe economic sanctions have been imposed on Russia and Belarus. (however, oil and gas are still flowing out of Russia providing hard cash to Russia)

Beyond Ukraine

Map of Moldova and Trandiniestria Moldova is an agricultural nation of vineyards, wheat fields and forests with a per capita gross domestic product of about $4,500, just below that of Guatemala. When Russian troops invaded Ukraine in late February, many Moldovans feared they might continue into Moldova and push to turn it into a pro-Moscow buffer state between an expanded Russia and NATO.

Moldovans, among others, are concerned that Putin's ultimate goal is to restore the boundaries of the Soviet Union to the extent which he is able. Putin's view is that Moldova is a country that accidentally became a country because of what he has called the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe in history: the collapse of the Soviet Union." To Putin, countries like Moldova, the Baltic states and even Poland — are "not nations that have a right to be sovereign countries".

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the Moldovan government condemned the attack. In March 2022, Moldova, Ukraine and fellow former Soviet republic Georgia all applied to join the European Union.

Moldova, which is geographically just a little larger than Maryland, has sought security through a policy of neutrality, neither siding with Russia nor NATO. The speaker of Moldova's parliament, says now that policy is no longer enough and his country needs security guarantees from major powers. He says European Union member states and NATO allies can and should help Moldova - that includes selling weapons to Moldova's military, which has just about 6,000 troops and is not seen as a serious fighting force.

At various points, Moldova has been a part the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union and Romania. Moldova declared independence in 1991 when the Soviet Union broke apart. Some Moldovans say the country may be too small to survive on its own and the solution is to reunify with neighboring Romania, with which it shares a common language. Romania is a member of the EU and NATO - certainly a benefit to reunification. But reunification faces big hurdles. Although support has been growing over the past five years, only about 44% of Moldovans support it, according to a recent poll. Of course, Russia would certainly object if Moldova tried to use reunification with Romania as a backdoor route into NATO. A third option for Moldova is to remain neutral and try not to provoke Russia.

When it comes to Russia, Moldova has a number of worries. In addition to the estimated 1,500 Russian troops in Trans-Dniester, there are also at least 8,000 Transnistrian troops in the breakaway region, which shares a 250-mile-long border with Ukraine. The territory moved to separate from Moldova in the early 1990s amid the collapse of the Soviet Union. Trans-Dniester, which was loyal to the USSR, fought a short war with Moldovan troops. Russian soldiers intervened on the Transnistrian side. The fighting forces reached a cease-fire in 1992, and Trans-Dniester declared itself a republic, though it remains internationally unrecognized.

Moldova relies on Russia for about 70% of its electricity and 100% of its natural gas. This further's Russia's strangle hold on Moldova. There are genuine fears that Russia's next target may be Moldova and if that is the case it is unlikely to be the last.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, Finland and Sweden have considered applying for NATO membership, in what would be a major policy shift for the Nordic countries.

Russia has repeatedly warned of military escalation and even the potential deployment of nuclear weapons in the Baltic region if the two countries join NATO. If the countries do join NATO, it will be potentially very beneficial to NATO and it could bolster the alliance's defenses. When NATO was established in 1949, two years into the Cold War, Finland and Sweden did not join.

Finland shares a 1,300km (807-mile) border with Russia and gained independence from the nation in 1917. The countries have fought two wars against each other. In 1948, Finland signed an agreement of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance with Russia. The pact included an agreement that Finland isolate itself militarily from Western Europe. However, at the end of the Cold War in 1991, the threat from Russia toward Finland decreased and the Nordic country was able to operate more independently.

Sweden, meanwhile, has not fought a war for 200 years due to its policy of neutrality. Along with Finland, the country switched from a policy of formal neutrality to military non-alignment when it joined the European Union in 1995.

However, both countries have acted as key partners to NATO over the years and have shared intelligence and military drills with them—particularly as Russia's foreign policy has become more aggressive under President Vladimir Putin. The war in Ukraine has killed thousands and displaced millions. Rising security concerns in Europe and fears that the conflict could spill over to other countries have pushed Finland and Sweden into seeking NATO membership. Russia has said that there would be "serious political consequences" if the two countries joined NATO.

Before and After

Mariupol

Kviv Independence Square

Donetsk Airport

Kviv