Study Guide: Climate Evidence: Process of Science Refresher

To-Do Date: Apr 19 at 9:30pm

For next year- add computer modeling to the unit assessement - see changes to assignment. This page is a refresher on the process of science and  how it applies to the study of climate change The diagram below 

science flow chart

summarizes the process of science with feedback between:  

  • Exploration and Discovery

  • Testing Ideas with Evidence
  • Community Analysis and Feedback
  • Benefits and Outcomes 

Climate change is a topic that requires us to think about each of these arenas, but we'll start by focusing on Testing Ideas with Evidence. 

Download Text description of the above graphic that explains the process of science

Study Guide

You will want to focus on the material to answer these study guide question

1. How can you test ideas about climate change if you can't do experiments? 

    • What are experiments? 
    • What is a  natural experiment or a comparison? 
    • When would you use one or the other? 
    • Give a specific example of a natural experiment used to test events from the past, or about climate change. 
    • What are computer models and how do they test climate hypotheses? (you will be able to answer this by the end of the module)

Central Core of Science: Testing Ideas with Evidence 

Goal:        To build accurate explanations of the natural world.

By:            Testing ideas with evidence.

 

Testing Ideas:

In order to test ideas, scientists follow this general framework. 

    1. Idea You have an idea or an explanation  (called a hypothesis or theory)
    2. Expectation/Prediction What would you expect to see if this idea were true?
    3. Observation What do you actually observe? (this is your evidence)
    4. Analysis Did your expectations match your prediction? Decide if it supported your hypothesis or not.
    5. Community Share you findings with other scientists for feedback and critique. Generate new ideas and start again!

 

How to Test Scientific Ideas: From Prediction to Observation

In order to test ideas, you will need to collect raw data from your observations and then compare the predictions and observations. Observation can be done in different ways, such as:

    • Experiments 
    • Natural Experiments (also known as comparisons)
    • Computer modeling

In our study of climate change, we will often be examining data from natural experiments and computer/mathematical modeling. For example, over the course of the history of the earth, the concentrations of CO2 have varied. This is a natural experiment, which allows us to compare the temperatures at those different periods and see if there is a correlation with CO2 levels and global temperature. 

 

Assignment:

Unit Assessment Questions 

3. Idea/Hypothesis: The climate is warming.  State your predictions regarding: atmospheric temperature, ocean temperature, ice sheets, glaciers, sea level, arctic sea ice, extreme weather and ocean acidification.   For each of your predictions, state the evidence and whether it supports your prediction or not.

 

4. What if someone said to you '' But the climate has warmed before, how do we know it is humans?" How would you explain that humans are the source of our current heating? Use this graphic to  help you https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/ Links to an external site.

Recording to help you with answering this question- from class.  

You can also see the same interactive graphic in the assignment : 2018 National Climate Assessment - Indicators and Causes. Follow the instructions in the assignment. 

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